Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Done, and Gets Things Smart and the Dunning-Kruger Effect

Très intéressant, même si un peu déprimant:
Unfortunately, "smart" is a generic enough concept that pretty much everyone in the world thinks they're smart. This is due to the Nobel-prize-winning Dunning-Kruger Effect, which says, in effect, that people don't know when they're not smart.
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Let me ask you a brutally honest question: since you began interviewing, how many of the engineers you've voted thumbs-up on (i.e. "hire!"), are engineers you'd personally hire to work with you in your first startup company? Let's say this is a hypothetical company you're going to found someday when you have just a little more financial freedom and a great idea.
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So we all think we're smart for different reasons. Mine was memorization. Smart, eh? In reality I was just a giant, uncomprehending parrot. I got my first big nasty surprise when I was in the Navy Nuclear Power School program in Orlando, Florida, and I was setting historical records for the highest scores on their exams. The courses and exams had been carefully designed over some 30 years to maximize and then test "literal retention" of the material. They gave you all the material in outline form, and made you write it in your notebook, and your test answers were graded on edit-distance from the original notes. (I'm not making this up or exaggerating in the slightest.) They had set up the ultimate parrot game, and I happily accepted. I memorized the entire notebooks word-for-word, and aced their tests.
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Incompetent people grossly overestimate their own competence
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Incompetent people fail to recognize genuine skill in others
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This is, of course, one of the failure-patterns that Joel's Get Things Done clause is designed to catch. But interviews are conducted under pretty artificial conditions, and as a result they wind up being most effective at hiring people who are good at interviewing. This is a special breed of parrot, in a way. Interviewing isn't a particularly good predictor of performance, any more than your rank in a coding competition is a predictor of real-world performance. In fact, somewhat depressingly, there's almost no correlation whatsoever.
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Those are the folks you want. I'm not going to tell you: "Don't settle for less." Far from it. You still want to hire the Smart, and Gets Things Done folks. But those folks have a long way to grow, and they probably have absolutely no idea just how far it is. So you want some Done, and Gets Things Smart people to guide them.

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